Guardian Essential poll: Labor’s policies appear unknown to voters as major parties neck and neck

Many Australians say they are not aware of the Labor government’s key economic achievements and policies, with the latest Essential poll showing Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are neck-and-neck with a looming federal election expected to be closely fought on the cost of living.

The two major parties are tied at 48-48 in Essential’s 2PP+ vote after the latest poll of 1,100 people taken this month, with another 4% saying they are undecided.

But while prime minister Albanese’s net approval ratings have dived by five points in less than a month, his opponent’s score on the same measure has also dipped by three points since January.

The Essential poll’s “primary+” metric found 30% of people would give their first preference vote to Labor, 35% to the Coalition parties, 12% to the Greens and 19% to a minor party or independent. When forced to choose between the Labor or Coalition parties, the 2PP+ vote came out to 48-48, with respondents able to say “don’t know”.

On the 2PP+ measure, Labor leads the Coalition among the 18-34 age group (53-43%) and 35-54 age groups (50-46%), but trails among those aged over 55 (43-54%).

Both major party leaders have spent the summer conducting softer public appearances such as podcasts and ramping up their social media efforts, but as the election nears, Australians seem to be slowly turning off Albanese and Dutton.

Albanese’s approval ratings went up and his disapproval ratings went down between December 2024 and January 2025, in a substantial 11-point turnaround over the Christmas break. That relief has turned out to be short lived, with the prime minister’s approval rating down two points to 42% and his disapproval rating up three points to 48%, with a minus-5 net approval rating.

This has not translated to a pickup for Dutton, with the poll finding a one point decline in his approval rating to 41% and two-point increase in his disapproval to 45%, for a net approval rating of minus-4.

The federal election could be called at any point, but must be held by 17 May. At the end of last week’s parliamentary sitting fortnight, speculation heightened that Albanese would imminently call the election – but the prime minister has given little indication of when the poll would be held.

The most commonly predicted election dates include 5 April, 12 April, 3 May or 10 May.

After two weeks of parliament where Labor passed key agenda items including planks of its future made in Australia policy, expanded childcare access, electoral reform and stronger laws against hate speech and antisemitism, the Albanese government has been keen to emphasise its more substantial policy offerings compared with the relatively thin slate of ideas announced by the Dutton opposition.

But the Essential poll shows many Australians are not aware of some of they key policy reforms of Albanese’s first term in office.

Respondents were given a list of the government’s major achievements, and asked to say whether they were aware of them or not. Of those surveyed, 77% said they were aware of the $300 energy bill rebates for households – a popular measure which Labor may commit to extending through the campaign. About 66% said they knew about Hecs and Tafe debt cuts, and 61% were aware of boosted renewable energy targets.

Only 55% said they knew about the government’s changes to the stage-three tax cuts, which saw extra benefits flow to lower-paid workers than under the Coalition’s original plan. Less than half of respondents knew about the government’s plans to increase social housing spending (49%), the national plan to end gender-based violence (47%), or the government’s consecutive budget surpluses (46%).